Oh S***. This is really what I feared happening in this final because I really don't know what to say.
I think this matchup is a good thing, as it requires time to consider the factors and who would win. The fact that this makes for a difficult final should lead to some good point/counter-points. Which leads me to my first point....
Having given this some thought, I can only claim that I think Hogan would get the victory.
1.
Damage Control: I can understand the logic that if both men were fresh coming in, Hogan would be victorious. However, that simply isn't the case. Cena essentially squashed both Ric Flair and Andre, while Hogan went through an all-out war with Undertaker, and a decent battle with Bruno.
All-told, this is a 98-34 advantage for Cena in terms of damage coming in, or Cena by close to 66%. Both men have made careers out of overcoming odds and extensive damage in matches, and in Cena's case, heading into matches. However, this so thoroughly favors Cena. While I'd expect a finisher-fest here, would Hogan have the strength to crawl to the cover in time to put Cena away?
I think a far more likely scenario would be Hogan passing out in the STF. We've seen countless opponents go for finishers involving their legs, such as Punk's GTS and Orton's Punt, only for Cena to counter and lock in the STF. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the same would happen to a weakened Hogan as he went to drop the boot. As far as damage coming in, and what it means to the match, this heavily favors Cena.
When looking at both men in their primes, they rarely lost, went over clean, and both came back when it looked like it was too late. Hogan past his prime lost to Warrior to pass the torch, but that WAS past his absolute prime. Cena held the strap, never losing matches until Edge cashed in after the Elimination Chamber. But even considering that they were different eras.
2. How do you define Hulk Hogan's prime?: To me, that's the bigger question that needs to be answered here. When he landed in WCW and won his first World Title there, he was 41. Cena, on the other hand, is 36, so the age difference isn't that much apart.
Secondly, Hogan won more titles in WCW then he did in his first run with the WWF. I'm hard pressed to see the argument for Hogan being out of his prime with that being the case. And during that time, he suffered losses to Ric Flair, Sting, Goldberg, Roddy Piper, Lex Luger, and The Giant(Big Show). Some of those losses came by submission as well, including Luger, Sting, an Piper,
all names Cena has surpassed. So the thought of Cena beating Hogan by submission isn't as far a stretch as some might think, or want to believe.
As for Cena, one on one matches have been where he's thrived. The Rock and Batista are in rarified company of those whom have beaten Cena clean. I won't run down his title losses again, I did in a previous thread, and other then to Punk, all have come in gimmick matches or cash-ins following Elimination Chambers. Here, it's the opposite, as Cena feels like the man walking in fresh, with Hogan the guy walking out of the Chamber. It's not quite the case, but the damage ratio is extremely lopsided in Cena's favor.
So to me this comes down to who was the bigger star. Hogan in his prime, or Cena in his. And the answer for me seems to point to a clear Hogan victory. As most of the other factors would be either tied or questionable to say the least. So I think Hogan takes this one.
3. Bigger Star?: This, no doubt, is in Hogan's favor. When it came time to build the WWF around a man to promote WrestleMania, it was Hogan, and it was wildly successful. He was the top draw there for 8 years, and went on to be the top draw for another 8 in WCW. Cena, while the top draw for the past 8 years in the WWE, and half the reason for the two biggest gates in WWE history the past two WrestleMania's, still isn't on par with Hogan's ability to draw in his prime.
However, is this relevant here? Being that this is an 8-man, one night tournament, it's a combined draw featuring not only Cena and Hogan, but also Andre, Bruno, Flair, HHH, Undertaker, and El Santo. Hogan could have gone out in the first round, which he almost did, and his drawing power would have meant little.
On a side note, this could be a long one, can you imagine it, Cena hits the AA for Hogan to hulk up and land the boot and the leg drop, for supercena to overcome the odds and kick out and hit an AA out of nowhere, for Hogan to hulk up...
4. Who does a longer match favor?: John Cena, I believe. Hogan worked best when he worked quick, as two of his bigger matches, against Andre at WM 3(12 minutes), and Savage at WM 5(18 minutes) weren't exactly long affairs. Two of his bigger losses, against Ultimate Warrior(23 minutes) and Sting at Starcade 97(23 minutes) were "longer affairs."
It would befit Hogan to finish Cena fast. Not only is Cena a cardio machine who routinely goes 30 minutes or more in victory, but the longer the match goes, the more susceptible Hogan becomes due to damage received. Can he finish Cena fast? Nobody in his prime has done so, and a beaten-up Hulk Hogan isn't going to do so either.
Cena's not going to squash Hogan here, but he should beat him.