Shawn Michaels wins this match and he does it in the bottom of the 14th with a slap single to right field. Now let's take a look at why.
Before I get into this, I have a feeling that a good percentage of people who read this will have an opinion close to this:
Suplex
Suplex
Suplex
F5
F5
Brock wins
That certainly would be the case for a lot of opponents for Lesnar, but if there's one thing Shawn Michaels has never been, it's another face in the crowd. Brock Lesnar has won both of his matches in this tournament so far and he's defeated the toughest SOB in the WWF and the man who never gives up to do so. Those victories really shouldn't be surprising when you think about it, as both guys would employ the same style: go right at Brock with everything they had, maybe score two punches, and get throw halfway through the ring on their trip to Suplex City. We saw Cena do it and that's exactly what Austin would try as well.
However, that's not what would happen with Shawn Michaels across the ring from Brock. There's a key to defeating Brock Lesnar and Shawn Michaels is the Keymaster to Brock's Gatekeeper. If that's not enough sci-fi goodness for you, allow me to go back about eight years earlier to explain why Shawn Michaels is the one to put down Brock Lesnar and win this tournament.
A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, there was a machine known as the Death Star. Smaller than a moon but too big to be a space station, this new weapon was the ultimate power in the universe. With the ability to destroy an entire planet with a single shot, it was considered completely indestructible and took on whatever dared to come against the Galactic Empire with ease.
After destroying the planet of Alderan and causing a great disturbance in the Force, the Death Star approached the rebel base on Yavin, where the Rebel Alliance sat waiting. However, the Alliance had a plan. Using a set of plans stolen from the Empire, the Alliance figured out that the best way to destroy the Death Star wasn't to come straight at it, but to sneak in where no one was looking in a small fighter and take it out where you never see it coming.
That story is all you need to know to see why Shawn wins. The key to beating Brock is how you wrestle your match against him. Notice that I didn't say go after him, because that is the guaranteed way to lose. Again, let's look back to the Cena match at Summerslam 2014 and see where it went bad. Here's the first thirty seconds of the match broken down:
Opening bell
:01 – Cena makes first contact with Lesnar in the corner
:07 – Cena tries to take Lesnar to the ground
:08 – Lesnar reverses and gets on top of Cena
:09 – Lesnar's first punch connects
:12 – Lesnar punches Cena in the ribs so hard it knocks Cena off his feet
:16 – Lesnar powers Cena back into the corner
:26 – Lesnar hits the first F5
:30 – Cena kicks out at two but Lesnar smiles because he's won the match
John Cena lost that match. Let's jump forward to Wrestlemania XXXI with Lesnar vs. Roman Reigns and do the same thing.
:01 – Reigns makes first contact with Lesnar
:05 – Lesnar has Reigns off his feet
:10 – Lesnar drives Reigns into the corner
:17 – Lesnar hits the first German suplex
:27 – Lesnar hits the first F5
Roman Reigns lost that match. Back in time now for the biggest match of Brock Lesnar's career against the greatest striker in WWE history. From Wrestlemania XXX.
:02 – Undertaker lands his first right hand
:16 – Brock is punched in the corner
:23 – Lesnar hit his first suplex
:31 – Undertaker is clotheslined out to the floor
Undertaker lost that match.
Before I keep going though, let's get something straight: defeating the Undertaker is one of the most overrated in ring moments of all time. We're really supposed to be stunned that Lesnar, a monster, is able to defeat a 48 year old man who hadn't wrestled in nearly a year after getting very close to losing every single time? The moment was shocking, but it's really not that impressive. It's been compared to Ivan Koloff defeating Bruno Sammartino back in 1971. I understand the comparison, but for a very different reason: like Koloff, Lesnar just happened to be the opponent that night.
Is beating an injured and ancient Undertaker really that impressive? I've never really thought so. It's beating someone who is successful one night of the year. Why is it just one night a year? Because Undertaker is almost never around otherwise. He was rusty and banged up, but for some reason Lesnar is suddenly the greatest wrestler of all time because he got one win? That's not how wrestling works. It's a career instead of one night, and that's where Shawn trumps Brock.
Anyway, back to those three matches.
Three matches, four seconds combined, more suplexes than I can count, three losses. Every time, Lesnar's opponent came right at him and every time they came up short. Brock Lesnar is the kind of guy that thrives when he has to absorb offense and weather an early storm before he can start suplexing his opponents into oblivion, setting up the inevitable barrage of F5's.
This is where Shawn Michaels makes it a whole different ball game: he's smart enough to not charge right at Brock and walk into the raw power of a suplex machine. That's the key to defeating Brock Lesnar. As JBL has said so many times when Lesnar comes out, his opponent has to weather the storm. If you're trying to weather a storm, what are you going to do? Charge into it head first, or go on lockdown and try to ride it out until it starts losing its strength?
Shawn Michaels has made a career out of weathering the storm. Let's take a look at some of his most famous victories and see just how he made them work.
First off, let's look at the way the Iron Man match at Wrestlemania XII ended. As you've probably seen before, Shawn got caught in the Sharpshooter with just under a minute left and had to hang on. Once overtime hit, Shawn was barely in any condition to continue, but he staggered around and jumped over Bret Hart in the corner, setting up the first superkick. Both guys were down and then the second superkick connected to give Shawn his first WWF Title. Shawn Michaels won that match by surviving and hitting a quick shot.
Jumping ahead to another (better) match at Summerslam 2002. Shawn was returning to the ring to face off against his old friend HHH, who had become one of the biggest stars in the world, having main evented Wrestlemania to win the WWF Title earlier that year. Ever the evil one, HHH assaulted Shawn's injured back to the point where the fans knew Shawn had made the biggest mistake of his life by wrestling again. HHH set up the Pedigree but Shawn spun out and hit a superkick and nipping up to start his comeback, finaly winning with a rollup. Shawn Michaels won that match by surviving and getting a quick pin.
If that's not enough for you, there's the next pay per view match for Shawn, in the first ever Elimination Chamber at Survivor Series 2002. Shawn was beaten, bloodied and basically in a handicap match against Chris Jericho and HHH. After kicking out of the Lionsault, Shawn kicked Jericho in the face for an elimination. HHH was still evil though and sent the injured back into the steel, Shawn's face through the glass and Pedigreed him for two. Michaels countered another Pedigree and superkicked HHH to win the World Heavyweight Title. Shawn Michaels won that match by surviving and hitting a quick shot to win.
For the big finale of this segment, let's look at the biggest comeback win of Shawn's career. I think you know where we're going here. Back at In Your House XVII, Shawn stepped inside of a Cell with a man that wanted to kill him. Not defeat him, not pin him, but kill him. The Undertaker was at a level of violence that Brock Lesnar wishes he could reach and gave Shawn one of the greatest beatings in the history of wrestling. He rammed Shawn into the Cell and then knocked him off of the Cell, but at the end of the day, Shawn survived and won the match.
As you can see, Shawn Michaels is a wrestler who can take one heck of a beating but survive long enough to win in the end. However, there's more to it than that. Shawn is also the kind of wrestler that Brock Lesnar has had issues with over the years. Let's look back at some of Lesnar's losses. In no particular order:
Survivor Series 2003 – Tapped to Chris Benoit
No Way Out 2004 – Pinned by Eddie Guerrero
Summerslam 2003 – Tapped to Kurt Angle
Vengeance 2003 – Pinned by Kurt Angle
Smackdown – March 13, 2003 – Pinned by Kurt Angle
Noticing a pattern here? People remember Lesnar losing to power guys like Cena, but he has a history of losing to people much smaller than him who wrestle a more fast paced match. It almost happened again with CM Punk at Summerslam 2013 in arguably the match of the year: Punk stuck and moved and only lost because Paul Heyman interfered over and over again. Smaller guys who don't rely on power are Lesnar's Kryptonite, and Shawn is one of the best of all time in that fast paced style.
The other major factor to consider is endurance. Both guys have had two long matches already tonight, but this is a bigger issue for Lesnar than it is for Michaels. The obvious reason would be the extra weight that Brock carries (on those skinny legs of his), but more importantly, the longer this goes, the more it favors Shawn due to Lesnar's lack of a strong chin.
Think back on the matches with Cena at Extreme Rules 2012 and Reigns at Wrestlemania XXXI. Lesnar dominated for a long time, but it took one mistake for the other guy to take over. Cena barely had any offense but a single chain shot to the head and an AA was enough to put Lesnar down for a pin. The same is true with Reigns: he had Lesnar reeling after about fifteen minutes of getting his head beat in but held on long enough to get in a few shots, which suddenly had the match even. Brock is great when he's on offense, but it all falls apart when it's time to play defense.
Finally, if you want to get historical, let's look at the same basic formula. Back in 1993, no one had ever seen anything like Vader. He was big, strong, way more athletic than someone his size should be, and ruthless. In the other corner was a man named Ric Flair, who was just a wrestler in boots and trunks. However, he was faster, smarter, and capable of making Vader go longer in the match than anyone else had ever made him go.
The match started with Vader running over Flair and proceeding to give him one of the worst beatings of his life. However, it was Flair who walked out that night when Vader started to run out of gas and couldn't punch his way out of trouble anymore. At the end of the day, Flair made Vader miss and grabbed a rollup for the pin. How appropriate that Shawn is often considered a modern Flair and Lesnar and Vader are so similar. Same wrestlers, same story, same result.
At the end of the day, this is the same story that we saw in the greatest movie of all time: Rocky III. When Rocky goes right after Clubber Lang, the fight lasts two rounds and sees the young monster knock the guy with great hair into the middle of next week. However, when Rocky smartens up and makes Lang expend all the energy he has, it's open season on Lang's face and Rocky gets the win in a huge upset.
Now how can you argue with the movie that gave us Thunder Lips, which gave us Hulk Hogan, which gave us modern wrestling? Voting against Shawn is voting against wrestling history and just plain wrong. Not just because it could create a paradox that could destroy the entire universe, but because Shawn is the perfect wrestler to take down Lesnar, despite taking the beating of his life. He would survive and find a way to win, just like he did time after time after time. Yeah Shawn is coming into this match worn down and tired, but you know what happens when Shawn is worn down? People get kicked in the face.
